I think Givin hit the nail on the head. Let's not give credit thought to MMO's that has/is/will make it to that 250k - 500k slot. That's very good imho.
I think what measures success in this market, especially right now, is maintaining through the 2-3 month period. If my memory serves me correctly, AoC was the fastest growing MMO by initial sales to date. However, it's probably going to end up with 25k subs or less. If an MMO sells 1 million copies that's great but, who puts their card in after the free month? Who doesn't cancel after the second? Also, WoW only has around 2.5 million NA subs, that's still a mind blowing amount but it's not 10 mill.
I'm praying for a competitive market. I hope WoW and WAR do and continue to do very well. I'm tired of the market getting saturated with so much crap because this will eventually hurt investors. However, if the consumer doesn't watch where they throw their money, everyone will just continue to make their 20 level crap, take their money, and leave you with a screwed up game.
I like WAR but i'm more of a niche player now. I'm a PvP player, loved EQ2 pvp when it first came to be, and don't care much for playing against AI. EQ PvE was so tough and unforgiving, death, camps, high risk/low reward, all played into my stubborn personality. Now, AI and PvE content is so easy and soft.
Cheering for WotLK and WAR here. I'll only play WAR but if it flops i'm done with MMO's. I'll play D3 and SC2. Probably get the next-gen console.
Muli
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