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PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 9:50 AM 
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Seems like most of this off-season there has been talk of conference realignments.

First the Big 10 was going to pick up Notre Dame and possibly a couple other schools now the PAC 10 looks to be courting Texas, Texas A&M, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.

It seems that there is more than just smoke to this rumor as The Big 12 canceled a scheduled Thursday news conference with Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe and chairman of the board William Powers, the Texas president.

"We're not going to have any comments until we conclude tomorrow," Beebe said. "You're not going to get any more out of me."

One of the keys to this happening could be Texas A&M. They have not been too secret about their willingness to join the SEC (less overall travel, better access into the Florida recruiting area, natural rivals with LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas).

If ANY major realignment happens, the Big 12 will be losing teams not gaining them.
- They only offer one top TV market (Dallas/Ft. Worth #5 market)
- They have the smallest TV deal compared to the other major conferences (Big 10, SEC, Pac 10, etc)
- They have a worse academic reputation than the other major conferences
- They have only been in existence for 14 years and don't have the tradition of the other major conferences.

Seeing the six teams of the B12 to go to the new PAC 16 would make that a MAJOR deal. The other dominoes that would seemingly follow would be (IMO):
- Nebraska and Missouri with possibly Notre Dame, Rutgers and Connecticut join the Big 10 (would add the NY and Chicago markets to the Big 10)
- Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Miami join the SEC (would add the Miami/South Florida and Atlanta markets).

Those changes would leave the Big East and ACC possibly looking to either add or merge (not too far fetched). If they merged they would be THE Basketball conference. (Clemson, Boston College, Wake Forest, Maryland, VA Tech, N. Carolina, Duke, and Virginia from the ACC with Cincy, Pittsburgh, West VA, South Florida, Louisville and Syracuse from the Big East {in Basketball add Georgetown, Villanova, Seton Hall, St. Johns})

There would be a lot of losers in this type of change. The current "Non-BCS Schools" such as the Mountain West, WAC, and Conference USA would have even more of a distance between them and the big boys. Maybe you will see the Big 12 leftovers (Baylor, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas State who don't offer much other than Kansas Basketball to any potential conference suitor) joining a reformulated set of those.

Finally, to get this done you would probably see the new 16+ team conferences split from the NCAA to form their own governing body.

It could be a lot of fun/pain/tired-head


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:52 AM 
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This is all good news, if they can pull it off. It really being 4 16-team conferences that ultimately lead to a better system for playoffs or near-playoff games. It is one of the most interesting things to happen in CFB in a long time. If all this does, however, is create 2 super conferences and not do much other than that, I will be disappointed.


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 12:11 PM 
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I have invited Erin Andrews to my birthday party every year for the past several years. She never shows up.

Anyone can invite anyone. I will believe all this stuff when I actually see it happen. Until then, grats media story and sports talk radio debate shows on a topic to mull over...

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 8:05 AM 
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In the Big 10 scenario you posted it wouldn't be UConn. If they end up going to 16 teams Pitt will be one of the five since the Big 10 is a research grant generating machine and Pitt is the school out of all of the rumored schools that brings the most to the table there. Remember it's school presidents that make the final decisions on this, not athletic directors and football coaches.

Personally I hope they stop at 14, 16 team conferences are unwieldy enough in basketball, football seems like it would be a nightmare.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 9:49 AM 
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I don't know why I am replying to the sports idiot, but...

From ESPN.com story

Quote:
The Big 12 has drawn a line in the sand for at least two member schools.

The conference, amid a chorus of story lines involving Pac-10 and Big Ten expansion, has imposed a deadline of Friday for Nebraska and Missouri to state their intentions on whether they intend to bolt for the Big Ten, with the possibility of an extension for a decision by next Tuesday, The Austin American-Statesman has reported, citing two sources.

The Big 12's university presidents decided on imposing the ultimatum, two highly placed officials within two of the conference schools said, according to the newspaper.

"Nebraska has until 5 p.m. on Friday to tell us what they're going to do," one school official said, according to the The American-Statesman. "The same deal for Missouri. They have to tell us they're not going to the Big Ten."

A Dallas Morning News report also cited a deadline for the Cornhuskers but said it was within two weeks.

A political figure connected to Texas told The American-Statesman: "I know the war drums are beating. This is way beyond gossip."


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 07, 2010 10:28 AM 
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Yeah I think it was pretty obvious that there is some sort of truth to the scuttlebutt when the Columbia Missourian asked to see Missouri's records of dealings with the Big 10 by the Freedom of Information Act and was denied with the ongoing contract negotiations exemption.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 12:49 AM 
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Looks like the first domino will fall by this weekend. Nebraska looks to be going to the Big 10. If the 'Huskers go, the 5 teams from the Big 12 South plus Colorado will go to the PAC 10.

Then look for the SEC to make their strike to get to 16.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:30 AM 
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In other news, Erin Andrews is still not going to Cicely's imaginary birthday party.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 10:56 AM 
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and now Colorado has accepted an invite to join the PAC-10

Good-Bye Big 12!


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 1:27 PM 
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There is some smoke about Texas A&M going to the SEC. I think that would be a win-win for both parties. A&M could start to move out of the Longhorn's shadow. They could still have their Thanksgiving Weekend game vs their arch-rival (Florida/Florida St., Georgia/Georgia Tech, and South Carolina/Clemson all have like games). A&M would open the Texas market to the SEC - something that the SEC has wanted since the last expansion in 1992.

The issue would be who would join the SEC with A&M? Florida State would be an amazing fit as the SEC tried get the 'Noles to join the SEC before FSU took the easy way out and joined the ACC.

Other possible members could be Virginia Tech (new market for the SEC) Georgia Tech (they are a former SEC member and have the Atlanta market).

I would look for the SEC to get all four of those teams if the new PAC 16 tries to press for TWO automatic BCS invites due to it's size.

Another thing that A&M to the SEC would do is open the door for Baylor to go to the new PAC 16. If A&M goes to the new PAC16 Baylor would be left without a conference seat.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 1:31 PM 
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Tech isn't going to join the SEC.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 1:40 PM 
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How I see the end result of the Big Conference musical chairs:

New Pac-16:
(west div)
California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State
(east div)
Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas

New Big 10:
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Missouri, Rutgers, Connecticut, Notre Dame

New SEC:
(East)
Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech
(West)
Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M

There would possibly be a merger of some sort between the ACC and remainder of the Big East:
Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia, South Florida, Miami, Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest, and one other school.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 1:47 PM 
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The mantra from the SEC offices is that they will expand to the right markets. Va Tech is the only other team that I have been hearing rumors about.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 10, 2010 1:59 PM 
Derakor the Vindicator
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the Big 10 isn't taking UConn

Anyway I've been reading that if (when) the Big 10 goes to 16 they'll have 4 divisions of 4 teams where each division squares off against another division on a rotating basis. I would think that would mean no east/west and that the 8 team divisions to determine who plays in the championship would be dependent on which 4 team divisions face off that year. The only other way to do it in a 4 division system would be to have semis which I doubt would fly. Interesting system if it turns out to be that way.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:32 PM 
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lmfao

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5285680

Like I said earlier... anyone can invite anyone to anything. That doesn't mean that it is going to happen. Of course I was referred to as the "sports idiot" even though I said that I will wait until it actually happens before I believe all the rumors and media driven stories about "super conferences" and such.

Wonder who the idiot(s) are now, the ones who believed there would be a Pac 16 and SEC 18 and Big Ten/16 and so forth... But wait, Nebraska and Colorado and Boise State changed conferences! omfg Superconferences unite!!!

lol

Maybe it still happens. I mean I have heard 20 different scenarios from 20 different sources in the last 20 days. Believe whichever rumor you want to believe, I am sticking by the facts- all schools are staying where they are until they announce they are leaving.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:44 PM 
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Why did you even post that?


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:54 PM 
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:24 PM 
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cicely wrote:
Wonder who the idiot(s) are now


p. much still you, only now you have what actually happened backing up your theory instead of what it was before, you just talking without saying anything at all.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 7:17 AM 
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The SEC wins big in this scenario... The big 10 is marginally better, but still not as good as the PAC 10, Big 12(-2) and SEC... the PAC 10 is really no better at all, and the conference with the second best competition, the Big 12(-2) just lost its north division champion and one more team.

If you hate SEC dominance, you had a bad day :)


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 7:17 AM 
Derakor the Vindicator
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Pac-10 inviting 6 and only getting one is still better success rate than the theoretical birthday party

it may be 2011 before it picks up again, but the Big 10 isn't done


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:30 AM 
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This isn't over.

Look at what really happened to the Big12(-2). The conference commissioner has promised Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech a boatload of potential TV money to stay in the Big 12(-2). The other schools are getting much less than those schools. Also, Texas has been given permission to start, run, and profit from a "Longhorn TV" Network.

My first question is: Why and how did this new TV revenue appear after two leading teams from the North Conference leave? Texas, Oklahoma, Tech, and A&M were all but gone when this new TV money came to be. I have not heard of any new TV contracts with the Big12(-2) and I don't know how they will get more money with a weakened conference.

The Big12 (-2) now looks even more like the University of Texas +9 others conference. How long before Oklahoma, Tech, and A&M get fed up with being controlled by Texas. How long will it be until Missouri leaves OR IS REMOVED from the conference?

There is no published expansion plans for the Big12(-2). They will lose their championship game after Nebraska and Colorado are gone and that will upset Jerry Jones for the loss of the Big12(-2) championship game at Cowboy Stadium (aka The Dallas Deathstar).

The Big12(-2) will lose more teams. It might not happen this off-season but it will happen in the next couple years.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:58 AM 
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Oh, and look for Utah to join the PAC 10 now. That will make the PAC10 a 12 team conference and they will possibly have a championship game along with the Big10(+2), SEC, and ACC.

Here is the current ranking of TV Revenue per conference for 2010:
Big Ten: $242 (the Big Ten network is a HUGE part of this) (avg $22M/school)
SEC: $205 (avg $17.5M/school)
ACC: $155 (avg $12.9M/school)
Big 12: $78 (avg $6.5M/school)
Pac 10: $58 (avg $5.8M/school)
Big East: $33 (avg $3.3M/school)

This revenue is not just football, this is for ALL sports. The SEC has a $2 billion over 15 years deal with ESPN for football alone.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 11:32 AM 
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Hate to see my Big 12 losing teams. :( Happy it's not all falling apart.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 11:55 AM 
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Krby, the new deal is a network deal with Fox (not just their local affiliates).

I would anticipate a move by the Big 12 (10) to add 2 more teams; probably Texas teams and then kick OSU & OU to the north. They have to realize that if they don't keep up with the other conferences and maintain a championship game they are doomed to be poof in a couple of years.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:13 PM 
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Why would the Big 12 kick missouri? It's something you wrote in an earlier post, krby. The KC market is a pretty huge one.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:39 PM 
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St Louis isn't that small either.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:43 PM 
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I suppose if the Big 12 is nervous that they'll still take a Big 10 invite if it comes and they have a suitable replacement that they'd do it to avoid the headache down the road.

The way it is I kinda expect the Big 10 to get to 15 and then give the ultimatum to Notre Dame, take the last spot or we're giving it to Missouri.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:47 PM 
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How does the Big 10 get to 15 after this?


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:59 PM 
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Either 3 Big East schools or Maryland and 2 Big East schools.

No one ever claimed that they were going to add all traditional football powers.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 1:00 PM 
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I assume he means that they'll try expanding to 15 so that Notre Dame would be the lynchpin to hit 16.

Edit: Nevermind.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 1:42 PM 
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joxur wrote:
Why would the Big 12 kick missouri? It's something you wrote in an earlier post, krby. The KC market is a pretty huge one.


There is a lot of bad blood between the Texas schools and Missouri. They are accusing that Mizzou started this whole conference shopping mess. Missou is not getting as much money as the "Big Four" and they feel that they deserve as much money as A&M or Tech. The Texas Tech and OSU major boosters have been sniping at Mizzou for a while and Mizzou doesn't care for the Texas schools either. I doubt they would actually "kick" Mizzou, but the Tigers will always be at the kiddie table with Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas A&M taking up all the seats at the grownup table.

According to the reports out of Austin, there are no plans for the Big12 (-2) to expand back to 12 teams. Texas doesn't want to share the money and they are perfectly happy to not have a title game in football. (they feel that too many times the Big 12 regular season champion has been "wounded" in the title game where it hurt their BCS chances)

I have not seen any details about the new Big12(-2) network deal. I don't know if it is with Fox because they wanted to partner with the PAC10 (or what would have been the PAC16) to start the PAC16 TV network. FOX already has 49% of the BigTen network.

The Longhorns probably will jump ship in a couple years - once they get the Longhorn Network going and can tell whatever conference they decide to go to that they will continue with the network and keep those revenues. They have the rest of the No-so-big12 over a barrel now. They call all the shots and they get the biggest share of the money.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:24 AM 
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what the hell? let's bring this back up since there is serious noise coming from A&M about leaving the (conference formerly known as) Big12.


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 15, 2011 12:46 PM 
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How I see A&M staying in the not so Big12:
1) The Longhorn network becomes the Big12 Network (yeah right)
2) Big12 revenues are all split equally amongst all league members (also, lol)
3) There isn't a "14th team" to join the SEC with A&M (maybe)

-or-

3) The Texas State Legislature disallows Texas A&M to be in a different conference as Texas. That would however be counter to what the legislature passed when it allowed UT to start the Longhorn Network as a additional revenue source. A&M would get more money by going to the SEC. But politicians are self-serving anyway and there are many more UT grads in Austin than A&M and all other grads put together.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2011 3:21 PM 
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A&M has filed paperwork with the (not so) Big 12 indicating that they are leaving the conference.

This now starts the "who will be the next team to join the SEC" watch and simultaneously starts the "how long will the (not so) Big 12 last" watch.

I am hearing rumors that Oklahoma is also upset at being taken for a ride by the Longhorns and would jump at a chance to be the leader in a move to the PAC 12. That would take OU and OSU to the PAC 1X (Oklahoma lawmakers require that OU and OSU be in the same conference).

If (when) OU and OSU leave that will be the death blow to the conference formerly known as the Big 12. Texas would have to ask the PAC 1X to join or go independent. Texas going to the PAC 1X would probably benefit Texas Tech as the PAC 1X would need another team with Texas (after OU and OSU join) to make them an even 16 teams.

That would leave the following schools looking for a conference:
Missouri (SEC or Big Ten)
Kansas (Big Ten, Big East?)
Kansas State
Baylor
Iowa State (Big Ten?)

IF (and that is a BIG IF) the Big Ten (which has 12 schools) wanted to go to 16 teams (to match what would be the new PAC 16) It could make sense for them to invite Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State.

That would lead back to the SEC. After adding A&M they are still looking for the 14th (if the other moves happen it would be looking for a 15th and 16th as well). I have said all along that the SEC would like to add VA Tech (new market) as the 14th team. I don't see Clemson, Florida State, or Miami getting an invite as the 14th team. South Carolina possible would veto Clemson getting an invite. Same thing with Florida and Florida State, however some of the tension between Gator nation and the Noles have lessened recently. That may change if the conference is looking for members 15 & 16.

Miami has too many legal issues to be invited to anything.

Other possibilities to join the SEC as the 15th & 16th teams: Virginia (if VA Tech is already there) Louisville (could be interesting, would add to SEC Basketball and bring Rick Pitino and Charlie Strong back to the SEC)


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:44 PM 
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I'd see the SEC poaching the ACC more than anyone else from the Big12. VA Tech and A&M seem most likely, then a few crappy teams to give some balance.

Frankly, the best case scenario as a florida fan would be VT, A&M, Louisville and Clemson.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 02, 2011 6:18 AM 
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Noooo, not Clemson!

That means I'd have to give a shit about the SEC, which I don't want to have to do :(

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 04, 2011 3:56 PM 
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Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech to the PAC 12 (16?) is getting a lot of noise now...


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