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 Post subject: not a bad quarterback...
PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 5:59 PM 
I schooled the old school.
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20 for 27 completions, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Mr. Manning perhaps? No sir-- Rex Grossman, bitches.

The Bears played under the radar last year, and so far playing under the radar this year. It's where we like it.

See you in the playoffs.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:40 PM 
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OMG, Fribur is a Bears fan. He's not all bad! ;) I was *really* hoping that wee'd put up 40+ just to make Roy Williams' "prediction" even sweeter, hehe.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 9:33 AM 
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Don't worry, Rex's knee will self-destruct by week 6!


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:31 AM 
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i figured this would be about some other quarterback when i saw the title and planned to make a reply about grossman.. glad to see someone else noticing him. The bears have been my ncf team ever since they got grossman.. and hopefully this year ill actually get to watch him play the whole season. He definately has the potential to be great if he can stay healthy.
p.s. go Gators 8)

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 18, 2006 11:43 AM 
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My two favortie teams are kicking major ass, the Bears and Chargers.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:07 AM 
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There needs to be a rule about QB bragging after games against the Lions.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:40 PM 
10 Years? God im old!
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I am a HUGE bears fan, but be aware... we have not played ANYONE. The Packers and Lions are shitty teams. Lets see what happens when we play a team that should have at least a .500 records in the Vikes this week, than I will start believing.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:44 PM 
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True, and it's been a long time since the Bears really kicked ass aside from a few random seaons (13-3 a few years back, with all those overtime games, remember?).

But they don't even have to kick ass to get to the playoffs. As you said, Packers and Lions are ass. That means they really only have to do better than the Vikings, and they are in. Last year, they did just that, and so far they are looking better this year than last.

In short, I'll take what I can get :p.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:49 PM 
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even if it was against the lions, going 20 for 27, with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions is still hard to do and a great game no matter what. He is also the leading passer in the NFL with a 128.7 rating after two weeks 8)

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2006 6:34 AM 
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Mr. September.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2006 1:46 PM 
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Rex Grossman being good has never been in question. Rex Grossman not getting a season ending injury before week 3 has.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2006 6:07 PM 
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Rex Grossman season ending injury over under is at week six.

If Karma had anything to do with it, the Bears would be undefeated through the week Grossman gets hurt then Griese takes over and leads them to an undefeated season.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 2:14 PM 
10 Years? God im old!
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3-0... but today wasnt a great day for Rex. Bottom line though.. he came through when it counted. 24 yards to Rasheed Davis FTW~

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 6:21 PM 
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It's nice to start the season not only 3-0, but 3-0 in conference, too.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 6:24 PM 
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...but your conference SUCKS!


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 7:22 PM 
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Every conference in the NFC sucks... technically.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 8:11 PM 
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technically the NFC is only one conference...


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 8:18 PM 
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he meant division !


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 9:08 PM 
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There isnt a good division either.

The media seems to be in love with the NFC East, when its the NFC south that will prove to be the most competitive by the time the year is out... realizing that the Saints and the Bucs are pretty bad really shows how bad the entire NFC really is.

The Seahawks and the Bears are easy 1-2 in the conference, with the Queens and Falcons coming in a close behind. There are no other teams that will even be competitive this year IMO.

The AFC North is so superior to every other division in football its insane. The AFC will have a very GOOD team that wont make the playoffs, while the NFC will have a very BAD team possibly win a division. Such is the nature of the NFL today.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 9:50 PM 
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NFC East is a stong division, but the AFC in general has been the stronger conference the past few years.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 10:38 PM 
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Gimme a break, the NFC East is a very strong division.


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 11:51 PM 
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AFC North:
Cincy - Great
Baltimore - Very Good
Pittsburgh - Good
Cleveland - OK

AFC South
Indy - Great
Jacksonville - Very Good
Tennessee - Bad
Houston - Bad

AFC West
Denver - Very Good
San Diego - Very Good
Kansas City - Good
Oakland - BAD

AFC East
New England - Good
Miami - Good
NY Jets - OK
Buffalo - Poor

NFC East:
Philly - Very Good
NY Giants - Very Good
Dallas - Good
Washington - OK

NFC South
Atlanta - Very Good
New Orleans - Good
Carolina - OK
Tampa Bay - Bad

NFC North
Chicago - Very Good
Minnestoa - Good
Detroit - OK
Green Bay - BAD

NFC West
Seattle - Great
St. Louis - OK
Arizona - OK
San Francisco - BAD

Using a 5,4,3,2,1 scale the AFC North is the toughest Division, Followed by the NFC East, then AFC West, and AFC South. The NFC South North and West all rate the same. The NFC Wet only ranks high due to Seattle's Great ranking

There are more Great teams and Bad teams in the AFC. The NFC has some really bad teams but only one team can be labled as Great. Chicago is close to being considered Great but they have not played any very good or better teams. They play Seattle this week and will show exactly where both teams stand


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:53 AM 
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AFC North:
Cincy - Great
Baltimore - Very Good
Pittsburgh - Good
Cleveland - Ok

AFC South
Indy - Great
Jacksonville - Great
Tennessee - Bad
Houston - Bad

AFC West
Denver - Very Good
San Diego - Very Good
Kansas City - OK
Oakland - BAD

AFC East
New England - Good
Miami - OK
NY Jets - OK
Buffalo - Poor

NFC East:
Philly - Good
NY Giants - OK
Dallas - OK
Washington - OK

NFC South
Atlanta - Very Good
New Orleans - OK
Carolina - Poor
Tampa Bay - BAD

NFC North
Chicago - Very Good
Minnestoa - Good
Detroit - BAD
Green Bay - BAD

NFC West
Seattle - Very Good
St. Louis - OK
Arizona - OK
San Francisco - BAD

I will do the math later, but I think you over rate some teams, specifically in the NFC East due to old players, past their prime, and coaches who can coach great players that dont have any.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:38 AM 
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Way to base the divisions on 3 games. Carolina struggled early, but I question anyone's football knowledge if they think Carolina is a crappy team and think the Giants are just average.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:08 AM 
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Worthlessburger kept to something like a 32 passer rating last Sunday. I'm happy.

Let me peel this "terrible towel" off the bottom of my shoe.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:45 AM 
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Not a bad quarterback...

This thread is about Brunell, right???
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=260924034

22 straight completions (Record!), 24/27 for the game. Suck on that REX!


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:50 AM 
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The Giants are only a "team" when they are winning.

Carolina is only as good as Steve Smith.

Dunno why it takes more than 3 weeks to show that.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:50 AM 
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Oh, and if you no clicky. This is what Brunell had to say about his achievement:
Quote:
"It's a nice honor, but the credit should go to the 11 guys who were on the field," he said. "That's an offensive team record, really. The receivers were in the right spots, the offensive line did great. We ran the ball like we wanted to."


(Yes it was the Texans, but the thread was started about a team playing the Lions ) :P


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:29 PM 
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The Giants are only a "team" when they are winning.


Every team is only a "team" when they are winning. The Giants barely lost to the Colts, came back and won against a good Philadelphia team, and lost to the Seahawks in Seattle as underdogs. This hardly makes them a bad team. Like I said, I question your football knowledge if you think like you do. Chicago is VERY GOOD (according to you) and they have only played one decent team (and they barely won). Their defense is awesome, but their offense will struggle when they play a team with a quality defense. Baltimore is VERY GOOD (according to you) but I bet you would pick the GOOD Pittsburgh team to beat them, even in Baltimore, and I bet the oddsmakers would agree. It's simply too early to make judgements on teams, in my opinion.

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Carolina is only as good as Steve Smith.


Cincinnati is only as good as Carson Palmer.
Indianapolis is only as good as Peyton Manning.
Jacksonville is only as good as Byron Leftwich.
New England is only as good as Tom Brady.
Philadelphia is only as good as Donovan McNabb.
Atlanta is only as good as Michael Vick.
New Orleans is only as good as Drew Brees.
Seattle is only as good as Shawn Alexander.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:59 PM 
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Neesha the Necro wrote:
Quote:
The Giants are only a "team" when they are winning.


Every team is only a "team" when they are winning.

--- Not every team publiclly has players slamming the coach and each other after a loss. The Giants do. The Giants have personality issues that dont differ all that much from TO.

Quote:
Carolina is only as good as Steve Smith.


Cincinnati is only as good as Carson Palmer.
Indianapolis is only as good as Peyton Manning.
Jacksonville is only as good as Byron Leftwich.
New England is only as good as Tom Brady.
Philadelphia is only as good as Donovan McNabb.
Atlanta is only as good as Michael Vick.
New Orleans is only as good as Drew Brees.
Seattle is only as good as Shawn Alexander.


Not one of the players you mentioned is a WR. Think about that for a min. To only be as good as a WR on your team? Every other player you mentioned has the ability to rely on someone else. Palmer has Rudi Johnson, Leftwich has Fred Taylor, Brady has Cory Dillon, McNabb has Brian Westbrook, Vick has Warrick Dunn, Brees has Deuce AND Bush, and the Seahawks have been winning with SA not playing well at all. (thx Chad Hutchinson)

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:05 PM 
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Could have sworn Steve Smith had Jake Delhomme.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 1:07 PM 
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Well, the Bears as a team has always struggled indoors, particularly at the metrodome. The defense missed a lot of tackles which is very much out of character, and Minnesota's O-line did a pretty good job protecting Brad. He is very skilled at dinking and dunking you to death. The Vikings D blitzed us like crazy and really put Rex on his heels for most of the game, but we made a couple of plays that we had to to win the game. It was frustrating to see the running game take a back seat as well. It seemed like it was working, but then they'd go away from it.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:26 PM 
10 Years? God im old!
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Jake Delhomme? You could throw the ball to Steve Smith and look like a pro bowl QB. Give me a break.

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:54 PM 
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Yes, football is that easy.


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:58 PM 
10 Years? God im old!
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In context Neesha.... my point was that without a receiver the quality of Steve Smith, Jake is an average or below average QB.

Was it that transparent?

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PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:19 PM 
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I disagree, I just think the Panthers got off to a rocky start, which is nothing new for them, and they happened to have Smith sidelined, so he was made the scapegoat (to a degree). He returns, they win, all is well.

Randy Moss is an excellent receiver, yet look at how Oakland performed the first 2 weeks. A receiver can only do so much, they still have to have a better than average Quarterback throwing them the ball, making reads, etc. Aaron Brooks was never a better than average Quarterback, he had the benefit of a stud running back in New Orleans in Deuce McAllister and a top-notch receiver in Joe Horn. He has (had) a better receiver in Moss now, but his running game sucks so his lack of talent can be exploited even more.

Quote:
Think about that for a min. To only be as good as a WR on your team?

You said that, I didn't. I don't think you could put a shitty quarterback in Carolina's system and still be an excellent football team just because Steve Smith played on the same team. Hell, Arizona has TWO receivers as good as, or better than, Steve Smith, and how did they do last year?

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:09 AM 
10 Years? God im old!
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Dammit Neesha....

I was all set to rant back to you because of some other post you made in another thread about the first 3 weeks or something, then you went back to your stance that we dont know shit yet...

then ... the saints won last night .. proving your fuking point

damn you

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2006 10:28 PM 
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OK blame my love of numbers and stats I have re-formulated my NFL Index Ranking. This is BASED ON PERFORMANCE with a small index to opponents ranking. My formula takes wins, losses, point differential per game played, turnover difference, rushing and passing allowed per game, rushing and passing per game, penalties and yards penalized per game. I have added a weight to certain figures.

1 San Diego 12.949
2 Baltimore 12.119
3 Chicago 11.646
4 New Orleans 10.904
5 Seattle 10.129
6 Cincinnati 10.073
7 Indianapolis 9.348
8 Atlanta 4.402
9 Jacksonville 4.401
10 Philadelphia 4.114
11 Denver 3.190
12 Minnesota 2.995
13 New England 2.867
14 St. Louis 2.373
15 NY Jets 1.506
16 Dallas 0.595
17 Pittsburgh -3.093
18 Buffalo -3.296
19 NY Giants -3.376
20 Washington -3.760
21 San Francisco -3.884
22 Arizona -4.544
23 Miami -4.891
24 Green Bay -4.968
25 Carolina -5.472
26 Kansas City -7.288
27 Detroit -11.779
28 Cleveland -11.958
29 Oakland -12.084
31 Tennessee -13.471
30 Tampa Bay -13.603
32 Houston -14.620


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 6:44 AM 
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1 San Diego 12.949 - They havent played anyone... add more weight to opponents strength.
2 Baltimore 12.119 - I think this shows the problem with numbers. They are a good team, but they almost lost to Cleveland.
3 Chicago 11.646 - So you valueate defense highly... this is obvious
4 New Orleans 10.904 - Most people think this team wont make the playoffs... yet your numbers have them 4th overall... here's your sign
5 Seattle 10.129 - This is where things start making sense to me again.
6 Cincinnati 10.073 - Marvin Lewis could not possibly get enough credit for his role in making sure the off the field crap doesnt show on the field.
7 Indianapolis 9.348 - If the running game improves, this team will get scary.
8 Atlanta 4.402 - Sad to see the Falcons go through with Abrahms what the JETS went through every year.
9 Jacksonville 4.401 - I just hope Byron and Fred stay healthy for one whole season together so we can see what this team can do.
10 Philadelphia 4.114 - Ok... Ok... I will say it. Donovan is a very good QB. There... happy now?
11 Denver 3.190 - Shannahan = early coach of the year?
12 Minnesota 2.995 - Ressurecting an old QB's career ends as soon as he gets hit hard enough.
13 New England 2.867 - About damn time.... Brady and Bellecheck get to rebuild? Can they do that and still win the division? LOL
14 St. Louis 2.373 - Did the Rams become a run-first team when I wasn't looking? If so, the playoffs are closer than anticipated.
15 NY Jets 1.506 - Thank God I picked up Pennington late in my fantasy draft. He can throw again, and he has the targets. Who is running the ball for this team again.... someone send in an application to try out.
16 Dallas 0.595 - I compare Drew Bledsoe to Mark Brunnel. Your careers are over boys... let it go, and lets move on to younger, and better QB's
17 Pittsburgh -3.093 - To me, this guys are the Braves of the NFL. Great teams for so long... only one championship to show for Cowher. Is this his last year coaching this team?
18 Buffalo -3.296 - Willis McGahee is quitely proving what he said out loud last year... he may be the best running back in the NFL.
19 NY Giants -3.376 - Jekyl and Hyde in NY... how appropriate.
20 Washington -3.760 - Money cant buy happiness, or a championship with Mark Brunell at the helm.
21 San Francisco -3.884 - Surprise of the season to me? This isnt the worst team in football.
22 Arizona -4.544 - I want to see how good this offense gets with Linert... today.
23 Miami -4.891 - "Daunte's Inferno? WTH happened to Ronnie Brown? (see sophomore swoon)
24 Green Bay -4.968 - Brett should have been traded. I know why he wasnt though... the fans want these records set in green and gold. Even if they are shattered in 3-5 years by white and blue.
25 Carolina -5.472 - Complete dependance on Steve Smith... no other team relies on a single receiver more.
26 Kansas City -7.288 - Until LJ puts up my fantasy numbers, I hate this team....
27 Detroit -11.779 - What I wonder is... will this team get better when they learn Martz's offense?
28 Cleveland -11.958 - They showed a Romeo spark last week against the Ravens. I hope they rally and win twice what was expected. 4 games.
29 Oakland -12.084 - How this team wins even one game is beyond me.
31 Tennessee -13.471 - Can you hear the cries? Vince Young!
30 Tampa Bay -13.603 - Imagine how much worse this gets their next game with a QB that really should not even be in the pro's
32 Houston -14.620 - And I still think they are over rated.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:09 AM 
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I'll spare you my comments this time.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 4:18 PM 
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Thanks for the comments. I thought New Orleans was tated a bit high as well, but they are 3-0, there are only three teams with less penalties and yards penalized, have a highly rated run defense, yet are able to move the ball on the ground. Their playing Atlanta helped their stregnth of schedule (in my formula I give a team 1/3 of the SoS rating to the total)

San Diego is benefitting because they have only played two games with seven total points allowed.

It is still early, so it will take another couple weeks to work the kinks out.

I'd like to make the best formula possible so here is what I am doing:

=((W*3)-(L*3))+(((PS-PA)/(W+L+T))/25)+(TOD/25)-(((PYDS+PEN)/(100))/(W+L+T))+((((RYG*2)+PYG3)/100)+(PSG/10)-(((RYO*2)+PYO)/100)+(PAG/10))+(SOS/3)

W - Wins
L - Losses
T - Ties
PS - Points Scored
PA - Points Allowed
TOD - Turn Over differential
PYDS - Total Yards Penalized
PEN - Number of penalties
RYO - Rushing Yards allowed
PYO - Passing Yards allowed
PAG - Points allowed per game
RYG - Rushing Yards gained
PYG - Passing Yards gained
PSG - Points Scored per game
SOS - Strength of Schedule (Summation of the base index of the teams played divided by number of games)

Please tell me where I have overstated and what else I should include.

Thanks!


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 4:33 PM 
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32 Houston -14.620 - And I still think they are over rated.


I don't agree with all the ratings, but that got a good chuckle.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:05 PM 
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I plan on looking at your forumula more in depth later, as it is something I have done for some statistics classes in college....

But on the surface, given that the NFL bye schedule goes so long throughout the season, wins should be weighted more heavily than losses, IMO. Having an early bye will affect teams in your chart throughout the season. Just ask MLB fans, the win column is what determines the winner of a division more than anything else.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2006 5:23 PM 
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Chicago is 8-1 at home since the start of last season, allowing 44 points in those wins.


Tonight's going to be a good game-- let's make it 9-1, Chicago.

44 points allowed in 9 games is incredible, you have to admit :p.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2006 6:05 PM 
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San Diego still #1? ;)

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I have not updated the rankings, but they won't be. Like I said my numbers are based on what has been done. Although IMO Baltimore was lucky to win that game. AND if you look at the numbers if you take the home team (Baltimore) and give them the standard +3 for being the home team, they would have still been the favorite to win the ballgame.

If you want to show where my numbers don't mean CRAP then look at New Orleans (10.904) at Carolina (-5.472 + 3 = -2.472) and Carolina still wins.

Like I said, I am still working on the formula.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2006 8:41 PM 
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oh my god, did you see that touchdown pass?

You guys have no choice but to give the Bears some respect now. Grossman is for real.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2006 9:39 PM 
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was a beautiful pass, i said it earlier. rex is the man! 8)

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I do not think many thought Rex wasnt for real Frib... they just were not sure if he would be standing this far into the season. Every time he gets hit, or the camera pans off to follow a pass he made and a lineman is running full bore at him, I stop breathing.

A healthy Rex = NFC dominance for the next few years.

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 Post subject: Updated Rankings
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2006 12:21 PM 
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New rankings, tweaked the formula a little bit:
1. Chicago 15.564
2. Baltimore 13.800
3. Indianapolis 13.800
4. New England 9.146
5. Atlanta 8.187
6. New Orleans 7.935
7. Cincinnati 6.740
8. Philadelphia 6.515
9. San Diego 6.471
10. Seattle 5.972
11. St. Louis 5.328
12. Denver 5.111
13. Dallas 4.465
14. Jacksonville 2.271
15. Minnesota 1.852
16. Buffalo 0.782
17. Washington 0.696
18. NY Jets 0.679
19. Carolina 0.093
20. NY Giants -0.981
21. Kansas City -1.140
22. Pittsburgh -2.854
23. Cleveland -6.005
24. Green Bay -6.228
25. Arizona -6.737
26. Houston -7.383
27. San Francisco -7.498
28. Miami -8.805
29. Tampa Bay -10.459
30. Oakland -11.315
31. Detroit -12.669
32. Tennessee -15.195

Updated formula:
=((W*3.5)-(L*3))+(((PS-PA)/(W+L+T))/25)+(TOD/25)-(((PYDS+PEN)/(100))/(W+L+T))+(((((RYG*1.5)+PYG3)/100)+(PSG/10)*.75)-((((RYO*1.5)+PYO)/100)+(PAG/10))*.75)+(SOS/4)


Last edited by krby71 on Tue Oct 03, 2006 6:35 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2006 2:45 PM 
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oh my... my beloved Bears at the top! I haven't seen anyone willing to say that in 20 years :p.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:26 PM 
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Atlanta at 5 and New Orleans at 6 show a flaw in your rating system. It's hard to work a formula out to account for every little thing, but I can't imagine many people expecting either of those teams to beat Philly, San Diego or Cinci.


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Atlanta gets a big boost because of their running game and New Orleans gets a boost due to their lack of penalties.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:54 AM 
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So you would expect New Orleans to beat San Diego because they get fewer penalties? The biggest problem with stat programs is the 1 bad game-itis. Sometimes, once a game is lost, teams do crazy things to try and get back into it. Maybe they throw 3 picks and get sacked a few extra times because they are doing things they normally wouldn't do in a 4th quarter. It doesn't matter to them though, losing by 21 and losing by 3 both result in a loss, and if the risky stuff gives them any chance of actually converting a win instead of losing by a smaller margin, of course they are going to do it (see the Giants vs Philly game). Stat programs can't differentiate this though, and the intercepted hail mary at the end of the half/game looks the same as an int on a critical drive.

I don't know how to account for that in a stats program, but just noting that it's there. I guess all stats have that problem though when they rate offenses and defenses on yards gained and given up.


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I think it just goes to show that you can't tell how good teams really are just based on stats.

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Allow me to enjoy this, since over the last 20 years good seasons have been few and far between but...


Anyone still want to criticize the Bears now? :p Anyone????

/em hears crickets.


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THey stopped showing the Bears game in the 3rd quarter today saying.. lets go to a more competitive game. :)

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I'm waiting for the excuses to come trying to rain on the Bears parade, heh. They sure as hell look like the real deal this year. We've got an exceedingly good chance to go 6-0 into our bye.

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I'm still not a believer of the Bears offense, but the defense is down right scary. That makes them a real contender.


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Remember Indy went 13-0 and LOST in the first round of the playoffs. Going undefeated in the reg. season is nothing if you don't win in the playoffs.

The Bears have not had their injury this year. The Bears are DAMN GOOD right now. I hope for all the Bears fans that they are not peaking too soon.


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