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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 3:14 PM 
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Venen - good theory, but not supported by the facts. Look at polling in the MA race that Brown won.

Orme, I think there might be an echo in here. My fear is even if the GOP wins control of one or even both, Obama is still no Clinton.

Obama's pivot from Health Care back to demonizing Wall St seems like a terrible reaction, and getting Plouffe involved to control the midterms seems like a logical decision, but makes me think the only thing they will try to do is whatever they can to win reelection. I'd rather they focused on trying to improve the economy and eliminate debt than rabid populism.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:43 PM 
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Of course you think it's a terrible reaction :p.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:59 PM 
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Of course you think it's a great reaction :p.

And the circle of life continues!


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 7:47 PM 
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Quote:
Venen - good theory, but not supported by the facts. Look at polling in the MA race that Brown won.


Which facts? I am aware that independents had a high turnout/impact on the election. That doesn't mean Massachusetts is independent-minded in the sense that they're turning away from two-party politics. They voted for tweedledee instead of tweedledum. Coakley may just have had the same problem Corzine had. Just because the voters didn't like her doesn't mean we can expect true independent voting. Plus, even if Massachussets has somehow become the one state to become enlightened, good luck getting the rest of the country to follow suit.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 8:13 PM 
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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31914.html

Quote:
Valerie Jarrett had the most conservative count, saying “the Recovery Act saved thousands and thousands of jobs,” while David Axelrod gave the bill the most credit, saying it has “created more than – or saved more than 2 million jobs.” Press Secretary Robert Gibbs came in between them, saying the plan had “saved or created 1.5 million jobs.”


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Sun Jan 24, 2010 9:34 PM 
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Quote:
Of course you think it's a great reaction :p.

And the circle of life continues!


Ah, but that's the difference between you and me... I never said that, nor most of the things gwiber and you attribute to me :p.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Mon Jan 25, 2010 9:16 AM 
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You're a mystery! I keep peeling back layers to this onion but every time I think I am close to solving the great mystery that is Fribur, I find yet more complexity.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:56 PM 
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Boom!

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60U1PZ20100131

Quote:
The estimate for the current fiscal year is significantly higher than the $1.35 trillion figure forecast by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office last week.

Despite the difference, both estimates indicate that the deficit will continue to hover at a level not seen since World War Two, when measured as a percentage of the economy. Last year the government posted a $1.4 trillion deficit.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 11:37 AM 
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Yes, there's a big deficit. We know. Thanks. How'd we get into this hole again? Yeah.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 12:45 PM 
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By electing terrible politicians for the past 10 years.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Mon Feb 01, 2010 8:24 PM 
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I really wish charts like that would put the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in them when Bush was President. At least then we would be comparing apples with apples, or close to it.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:48 AM 
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that would be way too honest.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:03 AM 
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Quote:
You’ve no doubt seen this chart from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities or something similar before, but that doesn’t make it any less true. And what is it in the president’s proposed budget that the Republicans are aiming at? The plan to let the Bush tax cuts lapse for people making more than $250,000 per year. In other words, the problem with the Obama budget is that the deficits are too high, and the solution is to cut taxes. Huh?

None of this is new, of course. Sam Stein pointed out the same issues in December. Yet since Ronald Reagan, a large proportion of the electorate has become wired to believe that deficits are always the product of excess government spending, so the facts bear repeating.

The fiscal situation is actually very simple. The budget was in surplus when President Clinton left office, although there was already the prospect of budget-busting Medicare deficits in the long-term future. The 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts and the unfunded Medicare prescription drug benefit created the large deficits of the Bush era. (The Iraq and Afghanistan wars didn’t help, but it’s not fair to blame those entirely on the Republicans; plenty of Democrats went along.) Then the financial crisis and the resulting recession blew a huge hole in government tax revenues, creating the current spike in deficits; that spike was exacerbated by the stimulus package, which most but not all economists would consider a sensible response to a major recession. (According to an earlier analysis by David Leonhardt, the projected average fiscal balance for the years 2009-2012 has changed, since Clinton left office, from an $846 surplus to a $1,215 billion deficit. The biggest lumps are $673 billion in Bush administration policies and $664 billion in the costs of the financial crisis and recession, including bailout costs.)

Yet somehow the Republicans have tried–successfully!–to spin our current and projected deficits as the result of “more government spending,” putting the Democrats on the defensive. And unfortunately, the result is the Obama administration buying into the Republican attack line–that government spending must be reduced. How else to explain the three-year spending freeze, which is mainly symbolic and a little bit destructive? The bipartisan commission to reduce the deficit has a little more to recommend it, although I’m skeptical that it will achieve anything. The Republican position seems to be that the deficit commission is bad because–wait for it–it might increase taxes


http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/01/ ... -nonsense/

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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:37 AM 
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I see the problem as twofold:

1) We need to repeal the Bush tax cuts. I have no problem with that, other than hoping it doesn't stifle growth.
2) We should not also increase spending to such a degree that repealing the Bush tax cuts has no net effect on the deficit. Look at the budget Obama submitted. He's increased spending to such a degree that the effect of repealing is a wash - deficts get a little bit better short-term, then get flat and stay huge longterm. That's without addressing social security, btw.

It's common sense to me. If you have a debt problem, you try to bring in more income while cutting spending. Obama is proposing to bring in more income (2 trillion) while increasing spending (outlays will grow by a whopping 29% over 2008). Maybe it's a concept that only I understand. I have zero debt. Most Americans have tons of debt.

There are some low-hanging fruit that I think the admin could work with immediately. War in Afghanistan, for one. Passing chunks of health care reform that meet the direst needs - coverage and costs, mainly. Admitting cap and trade is not feasible for a few years is another. Hopefully, they won't try to pass it this year or next. It would be a mistake.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 10:03 AM 
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See, I don't really disagree with you here, Joxur. The only thing I'd like you to back up is this statement:

Quote:
He's increased spending to such a degree that the effect of repealing is a wash - deficts get a little bit better short-term, then get flat and stay huge longterm. That's without addressing social security, btw.


Can you show numbers that this is the case, or are you guessing with that first sentence?


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 10:45 AM 
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Quote:
It's common sense to me. If you have a debt problem, you try to bring in more income while cutting spending.


This is true in any situation BUT a recession, is my understanding from the various economists I've been listening to over the last few weeks. Doing what is sensible in a recession can actually make it worse. Pretty much every economist I've heard talk about the recession has said that it is expected for the government to spend their way out of it, essentially.

We have a ray of hope with the GDP report that just came out, but I'm not certain we're out of the water yet. So while what you are saying is something I agree with (makes sense at home, why not in the government), I think there's a large caveat hanging out there.

Additionally, I need to dig up more information on that graph I posted. If we let the bush tax cuts expire, shouldn't they vanish OFF that graph? So I think that their presence there is a "if they are continued, what they will do to the deficit", but again...I need to look up/research it more. Because if that is the case, that large swatch of blue has really surprised me with how it compares to the wars.

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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 12:48 PM 
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Fribur/Rugen:

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this graph is pulled from this WSJ article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... Campaign-3

If you look at the right side of the graph, you see a bounce short-term that quickly flattens out over 5 years. It is based on the budget submitted this week and would, presumably, take into account spending and tax increases.

And Rugen, for the sake of not getting into an argument, let's just agree to disagree about the wisdom of spending out of a recession. I don't disagree with the concept, but feel that the spending that has taken place violates several key principles, mainly being temporary and targeted.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 4:55 PM 
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That's not what I was asking, and the lack of clarity may be my fault.

This is what I wanted you to explain:

Quote:
He's increased spending to such a degree that the effect of repealing is a wash


You are claiming that Obama's increase in spending is equal to the decrease if we repealed the tax cuts. I was asking where you got that information.


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 6:31 PM 
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I dunno, Fribur. Why don't you do some research and let us all know :)

Here's a good starting point.

Image

The new budget includes $100 billion for a new jobs "stimulus", moving several programs such as the $300 billion pell grant program into mandatory funding, etc.


**

Another interesting graph. The lowest year, through the next 8, is still 50% higher than under Bush, including TARP.

Image

Source: http://keithhennessey.com/2010/02/02/de ... rofligacy/


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 6:40 PM 
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Oh and BTW, all of this data assumes projections that are accurate. WH projections have almost universally not been accurate, and not for the better. I'm not attributing blame there, it's a shit economy, but you have to consider that the numbers in the second graph may in fact be worse. /shrug


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 Post subject: Re: Obama by the numbers
PostPosted: Tue Feb 02, 2010 8:50 PM 
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I'm going to point out (again) that the Bush deficits in that graph don't include either war we fought during his tenure.


You also still didn't show me how Obama's increase in spending is equal or greater than the gained revenue from repealing the Bush tax cuts.

I'm really not trying to be an ass here-- just trying to get a simple answer to something that you said.


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