For the first time in 10 years, I'm actually feeling somewhat concerned about the stock market. Yesterday was the first time in my adult life where the market "gave up." I am certainly no expert, and I don't want to pretend that I know what the market will do, but I don't think seeing the Dow in the 5000s is a complete stretch. Everyone is saying "we're ready for a turn-around", but I don't buy it. Here's why:

If there was real confidence that we would see a turn-around in less than 1 year, it would start being priced into the market. Instead, the market is going the other way. Of course, there is a lot of emotion and posturing in the market, so it's not perfect.

A lot of people think the market is a reflection of the economy, and I personally see it as a prediction of where we're heading because the future get priced in.

I continue to hold my nose and push money into the market, which gets harder each day. Some friends and I have a joke of "it can't go any lower". It's a painful joke now

And as a side note, if you're interested in seeing how badly I am being ass blasted, here is my portfolio. Dollar amounts and account names blanked

Keep your Omniture stock. I just got back from their summit with over 2,000 attendees including a private performance from Maroon 5. They're not going anywhere.

Nothing wrong w/ that portfolio. Economy will rebound and those stocks will soar. I have many similar interests.

Holy shit, your portfolio looks a hell of a lot like mine would if I actually owned stock. Glad I didn't start buying 3 years ago like I had planned.

Maybe I should start buying now, eh?

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heh orme, you're invested into the same ones I am >:)

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World of Warcraft: Kallaystra, Gweila, Steakumn, Tarathia [ Feathermoon/Horde ]

We've broken through too many supposed 'floors' for me to have any confidence that the market is getting close to a recovery point. I agree with Orme that the market anticipates rather than reflects the larger economy. So, yeah, the market concerns me. I'm hoping we get some kind of dead cat bounce this year so I can get out and hold cash. I have to admit that I stopped pushing money into the market a year ago due to indecision about where to put it and that for probably the first time in my life I am extremely grateful for my tendency to procrastinate.

Personally, I would stay away from the markets until the politicians can figure out how to talk about the economy without causing 300 point drops.

Now that Obama has his bill, I guess he can stop talking about catastrophe. But Dodd going out and talking about nationalizing the banks isn't doing anything for your portfolio. Given how nervous it is, and their tendency to use doom and gloom at every opportunity, I'd be wary. heh

But if I were you, I would go find whichever companies are going to find a cure for cancer and put all your money there. I heard we're going to have one soon.

Yours is down under 20% and that's fantastic. Guy who does my taxes said MOST of the ones he looked at this year were between 40-60% in the minus.

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I fail to see any energy stocks. Why is that?

i'm not really worried. i do risk management, and even though a lot of people have lost a lot of money, we've lived through recessions and we'll live through this one. there's too much money to be made in equity to be really worried

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It's the people retiring in the next few years who I feel bad for. If you were already planning to be in the workforce another 20-30 years, you'll probably be fine.

plus it teaches you a valuable lesson about retirement - the day you quit your last job, sell everything and move into FDIC fixed income and/or treasuries, so that you no longer have exposure to the stock market

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Pretend like I know nothing about stocks. Should I go with Etrade or actually see a broker? Where can I find out more?

Yes I realize this is like saying "The Poker game sure looks neat! Can I play?!" But I gotta start somewhere.

you can go with an online discount brokerage if you don't mind losing money, or if you're willing to put in all the time doing research and making your own disciplined choices. or, you can go to an advisor if you have a stack of cash (six figures) to invest and want to have someone manage how much you lose.

for joe the average investor who isn't a high roller, a self directed account at an online brokerage is perfect, but you're basically betting on your ability to make a good choice.

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UNT is a natural gas producer.
NOV is a drilling equipment/supplies company.
Both are in the basic materials sector and are energy oriented, although not specifically up/downstream oil.

Bear in mind, the individual stocks I hold are more for concentrated returns and (right or wrong) I have never felt like over-concentrating on energy. So, while I do not have specific holdings, funds such as VFINX, do give me energy exposure.

If anything, I am a bit too heavy in financials: CINF, MRH, MORN, SEI, UMPQ. I feel (hope) that you should buy in the sector everyone hates, which is certainly financials. There is certainly risk there. CINF boggles my mind - it is showing solid profits, has a billion+ in cash, pays a 7%+ yield and is still free-falling.

Energy on the flipside was LOVED (and still is). There's a premium there that I don't feel is worth pursuing.

Who knows!?

My portfolio is down 40% (

Like I wrote, we have a joke of "it can't go any lower". Well, it certainly can. However, by most measures the market is now at a minimum "fair value". By many measures, it is under-valued. However, the market is not rational, so a 5000 (or 4000) Dow is certainly possible.

Also, there is always a chance of a calamity that throws us into deeper recession/depression. What if a nuclear device detonates in downtown Chicago tomorrow?

Ultimately, you have to ask yourself if you believe in the current system. Personally, I think we will come out of it and for someone under the age of 40, this is a great opportunity. I have bumped up our investing and continue to buy, we are at roughly 25% of our gross going into the market. I hope it pays off in the coming years.

But, as I tell anyone - that doesn't mean you plunk $10,000 in right this minute. Figure out what you can afford and spread it over the next year. But, if you're not investing, now is a great time to start.

The only concern I would suggest you consider is that you don't get into the "buy high, sell low" mentality that most people have.

That's not a typo. From 1998-2000 when the market was raging, people were pouring money in (buying high). It plummeted and around 2003, people pulled out and ran for cover (sold low).

My personal opinion is that now is the wrong time to stop putting money in unelss you absolutely cannot afford it, or you believe America as a whole is on the brink of crumbling.

Again, just my opinion. Anyone who claims to know any of this with relative certainty is a snake oil salesman

Couple things:
1. Never pay a traditional broker. They should be outlawed (ok, strong opinion, but it is what it is)
2. Definitely do it online, but your strategy depends on your goals

One of the biggest mistakes most people make is that they do not take advantage of tax advantaged accounts. So, whatever you do - max out your tax shelters before you start "playing".

If you work at a job that has a 401k with a match, you definitely want to start there.

If you are at a job without a 401k, you probably don't have a particularly high income, so I would recommend doing a Roth Ira. I would recommend starting at Vanguard.Com and looking at VFINX - the S&P 500 index.

Here's a big misconception about stocks - a lot of people think you want to pick "the hot stock". Bah, a bunch of crap. The first and most important thing is divesification (unless you simply want to gamble). At Vanguard, you can start a Roth with a small amount of money and start doing small deposits. Once you have $3000-$4000 in VFINX, then you might want to start looking at other funds. Once you have $10,000+ diversified through 2-4 funds, then you can safely pick stocks.

You don't have to use Vanguard, but I would highly recommend starting with whatever company you plan on using for mutual funds because you'll save on commissions.

Obviously that's a crash course and just my opinion. But, I feel strongly that any other approach is simply reckless. If you want to just buy some stocks for shits and gigles, go to Scotrade.com or sharebuilder.com. I think they're the cheaper. I personally use Ameritrade.com for my retirement funds and Etrade for my banking and non tax advantaged brokerage.

But, if you are buying stock in batches in any less than $1000, it is somewhat foolish since you'll be giving up between 1%-2% in commissions right off the top.

And crap - I just checked out Vanguard... their minimum buy-in for a fund is $3000, that sucks. At Fidelity I know they have several for $2500. That's why a 401k is a good starting point - no minimums apply.

Maybe some other people have a suggestion on funds with a smaller entry point. But, you need to be real careful or you'll get ate up in commissions and fees.

If, for whatever reason, you don't feel ready to invest market-wise and/or need/want to increase your personal savings, I would highly recommend a savings account with one of the internet-only outfits (such as ING Direct or HSBC). You will never get rich with any standard savings account, but the internet-only banks will pay a rate that is much closer to inflation, and, thus, will not incur the purchase power losses of a brick-and-mortar savings account.

For example, right now my ING Direct account is paying 2.45% APR (down from 4.00% or so when I opened it). My companion savings account at my regular bank, which carries just enough of a balance to function as overdraft protection, pays 0.25% APR.

My experience with ING Direct is that takes 1 - 2 business days to withdraw funds (and funds are not eligible for withdrawal until 14 days after deposit). Obviously, any savings account should only be used for assets that you want to be highly liquid (i.e. want to be able to get at your money within a couple of days), or as a pit stop for your cash while you figure out what to do next. I woudn't keep a huge chunk of cash in it indefinitely, but they serve their purposes well.

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Hope is the new black.

A good place to look if you want small buy-ins with little to no fees are ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) there are all kinds of configurations within the category and are a reasonable place to start.

Orme, no danger there. I figured this summer I'd start laddering my cash in to try & hit the low.

hey orme what is that viewer you're using to see your stocks. i only ask because i know what ztd82 is and i ahven't seen that format

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That's MS Money's Portfolio Manager.

Those money market funds really annoy me. They make managing the books a pain, oh well.

What is a money market fund?

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"Creating Havoc and Pie Since 2001!"
My Website: http://www.anthonyhays.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/cakvala

basically it's an interest-bearing security for your cash that isn't invested. for the most part they're worthless because interest rates are so low that even with the highest yielding fund most brokers offer, you might get 2% apy

i know my money market fund when i opened my ira was 4%, now it's 1%.

are those all your accounts, or are they ones you manage for others?

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having no money, i am blissfully unaffected by the dow's fickle fluctuations.

maybe someday i will care. i hope not, though.

Those all belong to either my wife or me. I wish it could all be in one account, but we each have to maintain separate Roth IRAs and 401ks. Then, I have a traditional brokerage as well as an IRA that I rolled over previous employers' 401k/pension.

Hey, lets start investing social security money in the stock market! ;>

I think now is the time to buy stocks.

I dunno, I keep hearing the floor is around 4,000 on the DJ.

I want to setup a system to buy a certain stock every 2 week how do I go about doing this?

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"Creating Havoc and Pie Since 2001!"
My Website: http://www.anthonyhays.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/cakvala

that's the support level from the early 90s, i'm reasonably sure we're going to establish a new support level within the sixes

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Well, the short answer is you put in a recurring market order (which varies by brokerage), but that is generally a bad practice.

The long answer is: you probably don't want to do that.
That is, you can't know that a stock is going to be a good buy in 2 weeks. For example, I think Netflix is a great stock and currently a "good" buy. Not a great one. But, if NFLX ran up to $50/share in the next 2 weeks (possibly but unlikely), it more than likely would be a sell. Make sense?

Now, if you are calling a mutual fund a stock, that's a different proposition - because you are paying someone to make those evaluations for you.

And lastly, I would discourage you from buying a single stock unless you already have a diversified portfolio. Of course, if your response is "hey, it's just for fun", then I would say "have at it "

Its really just to own a part of a company I like and admire rather then buy and sell.

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"Creating Havoc and Pie Since 2001!"
My Website: http://www.anthonyhays.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/cakvala

We're there now... do you think it will dip below but return and sort of hover in the sixes, or do you think we've bottomed out right now?

I still think the floor is much lower.

Going out on a shaky limb in a thunderstorm...

I think we are getting close to where a floor will eventually be established after another scary plunge and slow climb. My reasoning is not good, mostly I just look at where the market was prior to the housing bubble and the dotcom bubble and extrapolate from there to find where it would have been without any "irrational exuberance".

The difficulty is that our economy is structurally different than any historical period so it's extremely difficult to use the past in any predictive way. There is also too much uncertainty: What if China sits out an auction? What net effect will Cap & Trade have? Will Universal Healthcare happen? Will there be any real recovery before the tax hikes? What will the net effect of the housing plan be? How long before the short term deflation dissipates and inflation skyrockets? Is Bernanke competent enough to handle the inflationary environment to come? Will those calling for a revisiting of a consumer-based economy win or will there be a return to a production-based economy?

The idea of a "floor" and "support" is mostly imaginary technical analysis.

There is no floor. There is only the point where the market stops going down. Big difference - a floor suggests there is some arbitrary number where everyone says AH-HA.

Barring crisis - stocks are "fairly priced" now. But, there is no reason to believe the Dow will not get into the low 4000s. At the same time, it is not unreasonable to say yesterday saw the lowest we will ever go again.

Beh Orme I wasn't using those terms in a technical sense...

While tech analysis is kind of made up by chartists, substantial trading does happen on the basis of technical indicators. Personally I trade on fundamentals, but even in this market situation, technical movement of stocks in the short term seems to be the best short term trading strategy. Trades I make are based on fundamental indicators and are generally long-term investments, but that's not to say that there isn't money to be made with charts if you're just looking to play the sentiment. I don't think we're going to 4000, that's just where the established support level is. I have no doubt that a new support level will present itself closer to current levels, but the reason tech analysis exists is to gauge at what point people start buying and in reaction to sellers.

Of course, these days it seems like 1% of investors are cashing in their retirement every day.

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Just curious - what's the basis of "support" at 4000?

that was the point at which the market started going back up after coming down, and not going substantially below it... it's not 4000 exactly, i think high 4000s (4700 or so), one of the guys i work with is a big tech guy, but even he agrees that it's mostly pointless

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Jim Cramer called it!

My suggestion is to get a free yahoo finance account. Play with fake money, do a cash deposit with a 'real amount' you would be willing to actually put in. Then fake buy and sell shares. Their system is pretty good for being free, plus you can get a feel for how things work.

Unless youre too eager... Then get a trading account. If you can USAA is awesome, but its military only. Otherwise theres a whole slew of trading accounts, people i know use scottrade and etrade i believe... I couldn't be more pleased with USAA.

i only trade a little, but most of it i got into in October

Mine are like this:
-48.29%
-31.15%
-38.58%
1.57%
24.86%

Total: -18.32%

If i 'needed' the money, it would be stressful, but im in for the haul... And im infusing when i have a little extra cash. Which is nice because even including the 'losses' i have more money in my trading account then i have ever saved before. Its giving me the opportunity to find extra cash to input as necessary, and finding ways to save cash, giving my saving a theoretical goal.

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My sig got eated by the bit bucket...
Fellenwhite Moonsong
Sixty-Something drunken freak of Lanys
Formerly known as:
Dashkast Justifyer
75 Gnomish Puppy kicker

oh my stocks, lol
FNM: -48.29%
AXP: -31.15%
FRE: -38.58%
DIS: 1.57%
F: 24.86%

Total: -18.32%

Explain more about Yahoo thingy!

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"Creating Havoc and Pie Since 2001!"
My Website: http://www.anthonyhays.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/cakvala

why did you buy fannie mae at two bucks

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Just go to Yahoo Finance, create yourself an account(if you dont already have one), and then use their "My Portfolios" section to create a portfolio, add money, and add transactions of what you would want to buy...

Then you can use their 'performance' view to see how your fake stocks are doing. Its pretty nice, i actually use it for my real portfolio as well.


I was listening to other people for both fannie and freddie. I dont do that anymore, cause now i gotta wait likely year(s) for that to come back...

Fake stock? can you buy real stock?

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"Creating Havoc and Pie Since 2001!"
My Website: http://www.anthonyhays.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/cakvala

Yeah its all theoretical money(unless your using it to track your real portfolio), i dont believe yahoo has any brokerage services, but they have one of the best free portfolio managers out there. Although the real-time stuff stopped working after daylight savings for me, not sure why...

I was just saying its a good idea to test it out on a fake account and see how it works before you start with the real money.

you buy fake shares of real stock with fake money

in practice, almost everyone makes fake money until they start using real money, get greedy and lose it all

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The stock market will rebound once the majority of people believe it can only get worse. When they stop talking about recovery and start talking about a continued plunge that may never end...that is when the recovery will actually begin.

When your barber tells you about a great hot stock tip...sell. When you start hearing the sky is falling and the worst is yet to come from everyone...buy.

I am buying right now, but I'm not smart enough to know if this is the bottom, so I've set aside fixed amounts for DOW increments. I had a percentage allocated to buy at 9000, 8000, 7000 and 6000(25% each). If it goes to 5000 and lower, I'll have to make more money and then get back to it.

One bright spot is how many casual investors are holding short positions right now. Irony loves to hit market chasers twice...get them when their stocks plunge, so they switch to short positions, then get them again when the market recovers. It's good the have Murphy's Law working in your favor for a change.

One thing i noticed on the Stock market is Googles stocks are like in the upper $300 a share, wow!

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"Creating Havoc and Pie Since 2001!"
My Website: http://www.anthonyhays.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/cakvala

above $600 a year ago

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One thing to toss out is this - you cannot compare current share prices to gauge "quality" of stock or anything like that.

You might not be implying that, but someone sees a company like GOOG trading at $300 a share and assumes it is a "better" stock than Quality Systems (QSII) trading at $43 a share.

In reality, QSII has far out-performed GOOG.
Why? GOOG's initial price was around $100, so it's only tripled over the last 5 years (although that's darn good!)
QSII on the other hand was trading around $48/share back when GOOG first went public. The difference is QSII has split twice and paid a dividend.

What's the point? The point is don't let stock price confuse you - it really is unimportant in the grand scheme of things.

If you put $1000 in GOOG in September 2004, you would have about $3000 today.
If you put $1000 in QSII in September 2004, you would have about $3600 today even though QSII's share price appears to have gone down

No i just thought $300 a share was a lot i didnt say it was successful. Just seems like it needs to be split soon.

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"Creating Havoc and Pie Since 2001!"
My Website: http://www.anthonyhays.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/cakvala

Funny what a couple days can do:
FNM: 15.83%
AXP: -28.78%
FRE: 33.08%
DIS: 2.64%
F: 46.89%

Total: -2.93%

Interesting talk on human behavior and cheating. Relation to the economy.

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/dan_ ... _code.html